What will be impact on India if Russia-Ukraine war ends after Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska?

In a radio interview, US President Donald Trump claims that the tariffs he has imposed on India are the reason why Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to meet. That is, Trump is in a way scaring Putin that if he does not agree to a ceasefire, India, which is the second largest buyer of Russian oil, will have to bear the brunt.

Before talking to Putin, Trump had been continuously making tall claims. Trump has claimed to stop the conflict between India and Pakistan many times; it is a different matter that India has rejected Trump’s claims many times. In this panic, Trump imposed a base tariff of 25 per cent on India at the beginning of the month. After this, Trump imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff on India on August 7, accusing India of buying oil from Russia.

Trump probably thinks that by imposing tariffs, he will stop India from buying oil from Russia, and he will use this diplomatic weapon in talks with Putin, but Trump does not know that neither India has bowed down to him till now, nor will Putin bow down. That is why Trump is playing mind games. Trump is trying to trap Putin in the trap of his mind games.

If the Trump-Putin talks fail, what will be its effect on India?

It is possible that Trump can again fire tariff bombs against India. The US’s 50 per cent tariff on India is to be implemented from August 27, and from this day, India will become the country in Asia bearing the highest US tax.

If Trump again attacks India with tariffs in case there is no agreement between Trump and Putin, then somewhere, this tariff will be like a trade ban on India. The export of products like leather, textiles, gems and jewellery, carpet, and machine parts will be affected the most, and in a way, it can also stop because after reaching the US market, these products will become very expensive. There is also a fear that due to this, India’s GDP will go below 6 per cent.

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What effect will it have on India if these talks are successful?

If Russia agrees to a ceasefire with Ukraine, then US can remove many sanctions imposed on it. Also, Russia can get permission to trade with many countries, including India, which is currently the second-largest importer of Russian oil.

That is, on the oil front, Russia can get permission to trade with India. The additional tariff of 25 per cent that US has imposed on India, US can remove it if these talks are successful. Even though Trump feels that there is only a 25 per cent chance of the talks with Putin failing, it is not easy for any economic expert to immediately assess the impact this will have on India, because Trump has not fully revealed his cards.