Trump’s 25% India tariff, TCS’s mass layoffs, oil on the boil

What’s a little tariff between friends?

US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on “friend” India and additional penalties for buying Russian oil from 1 August even as the two countries negotiate a trade deal. 

While there is little clarity on the impact of the new tariffs and penalties, the move has for now put India at a disadvantage to other countries that have struck trade deals with the US, with their tariffs ranging from 10-20%. 

India has so far refused to concede to the US’s demand for greater access to its agriculture and dairy sectors.

Crude awakening

The US’s latest threats of secondary sanctions on Russia, or more precisely its energy trade, has led to a sharp rise in oil prices. After hovering around $70 per barrel since the Israel-Iran ceasefire, Brent crude oil prices jumped to nearly $73 per barrel on Wednesday, following Trump’s threats. 

The US also sanctioned 20 entities, including six from India, for petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemical trade with Iran. Even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is expected to increase output, policy uncertainties will keep oil prices volatile.

TCS’s payroll purge

12,000: That’s the the number of employees TCS plans to lay off worldwide, as Mint reported. The layoffs, comprising around 2% of its workforce, will mostly affect mid- and senior-level staff. India’s largest IT firm said the move was part of its strategy to become a ‘future-ready organisation’, focusing on AI, tech investment, and workforce realignment. This has sparked worries of similar moves by other IT giants also facing uncertainty in their biggest market, the US.

Global economy shows grit

Lower-than-expected trade disruptions led to a more optimistic global growth forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this week. The agency raised its 2025 global growth projection to 3% from 2.8% in April, along with a broader upgrade from the US, EU, China to India.

While the IMF cited stronger front-loading of trade, lower effective US tariffs, and improved financial conditions as key drivers in the first half of the year, it also said the risks to projections remained tilted to the downside.

We work, we list

India’s coworking sector is in expansion mode, with Awfis, Smartworks, and IndiQube now listed, and WeWork India expected to go public in August. 

Riding a post-covid boom, the industry has scaled rapidly, with flexible office supply in top cities expected to rise to 121 million sq ft by FY2027 from 85 million sq ft in FY25, an analysis by howindilives.com showed. 

As their business models are maturing, they are seeing strong revenue. However, despite strong operational margins, high upfront capital costs and depreciation continue to weigh on their profitability.

Tata Motors spends a truckload

$4.36 billion: That’s the amount for which Tata Motors Ltd will acquire Italian truck and bus maker Iveco, its largest acquisition ever, amid plans to demerge its commercial and passenger vehicle business.

The auto company is looking to boost its commercial vehicle business with the acquisition, which is expected to conclude by April-June 2026. For Tata Motors, the commercial vehicles business is the second-largest revenue contributor, with a 17% share in FY25. The company had acquired Jaguar Land Rover in 2008 for $2.3 billion.

Giants claw back profit share

India’s markets are dominated by large firms, with the top 10% by revenue accounting for more than 90% of net profits. This began changing after the pandemic as smaller firms gained ground during a broader recovery. But this comeback is now running out of steam.

In FY25, companies outside the top 10% made up 7.3% of aggregate net profit, down from 10.4% in FY23, a Mint analysis of 5,096 BSE-listed firms showed. Still, their performance was better than in pre-covid era, underlining their resilience.

Chart of the week: Women’s barriers to work

Low income, poor work culture and safety fears are among the top reasons why women have shorter tenures in India’s blue- and grey-collar jobs, according to a new survey report by the Udaiti Foundation and Quess Corp. Despite the growing numbers of women workers, more than half of respondents said they planned to leave the workforce within a year.

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