Chinese economy slows as Trump tariffs bite; FTSE 100 on track to hit new record – business live | Business
Key events
Oil prices edge lower ahead of Trump-Putin summit
Oil prices are edging lower this morning ahead of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin later today in Alaska.
Brent crude futures fell by as much as 0.8% to $66.34 a barrel this morning, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by as much as 0.9% to $63.39.
Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, told Reuters:
The market is watching out for whether there is a ceasefire or not. An expectation of a ceasefire translates into more Russian production…The question is will there be escalation or de-escalation?”
A potential deal could significantly lower geopolitical risk in the oil market. Analysts at the investment bank Citigroup said this month that a deal to end the war in Ukraine could push Brent crude to the low $60s range by the end of the year.
Recent weak economic data from China has also hurt the outlook for fuel demand.
Intel shares jump on reports of possible US government investment
Kalyeena Makortoff
Shares in Intel have jumped 7.4% after it was reported that the Trump administration is considering taking a stake in the struggling US chipmaker.
The potential investment, which would be paid for by the US government, would be used to develop Intel’s factory hub in Ohio, according to Bloomberg. It would also help shore up the chipmaker’s finances at a time when Intel has been slashing jobs as part of a wider cost-cutting drive.
Talks over the potential investment stem from a meeting that took place between Donald Trump, and the Intel chief executive, Lip-Bu Tan, this week, days after Trump called for Tan to resign, accusing him of having ties to the Chinese Communist party. Bloomberg suggested Tan was likely to stay in charge of the chipmaker.
Elsewhere in Europe, estimates suggest that economic growth in Switzerland slowed sharply in the second quarter.
Switzerland has estimated that its economy grew by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months ended in June, down from 0.8% in the prior period.
It comes as Trump hits Switzerland with one of the highest tariff rates in the world, at 39%.
Melanie Debono, a senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said “luck is running out for the Swiss economy”.
We think the Swiss economy will enter a short, shallow recession in H2 as the rise in US trade tariffs (to a whopping 39% for most goods) hits exports, while trade uncertainty more widely hurts investment.
We currently expect GDP to fall by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in both Q3 and Q4. Barring any revisions, this would mean that GDP in Switzerland will have risen by 1.3% this year, a touch more than the 1.0% recorded in 2024.
Swiss companies, whose exports to the US account for about one-sixth of their total foreign sales, face one of the steepest US tariffs in the world – only Laos, Myanmar and Syria had higher figures, at 40-41%.
FTSE 100 hits new intraday record high
The blue chip FTSE 100 index has hit another record this morning, rising by as much as 0.4% to 9,222.07, its highest point since the end of July.
It has pared back some of these gains, now up by around 0.1% 9,188.67, although it is still trading ahead of the high it set at the close yesterday of 9,177.24.
Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at the broker IG, says:
The FTSE 100 has joined the global push to fresh record highs, buoyed by improved risk appetite, supportive global trends and strong corporate earnings.
With investors drawing confidence from a friendlier interest rate outlook and resilient corporate earnings, the UK benchmark has finally broken through its previous ceiling. With a stellar over 11% rise since the start of the year, it is outperforming peers such as the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225. The move underlines how global market momentum can lift all boats, even in the face of lingering domestic economic concerns.”
London’s listed miners are leading the charge this morning, with Antofagasta, Glencore and Anglo American the top three risers across the index, up by 3.4%, 2.7% and 2.7% respectively.
Meanwhile the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose by 0.3%, led by the Danish cable group NKT, whose shares are up by around 8% this morning.
The Danish jewellery business Pandora is the worst performer, with its shares slumping 13% after it missed earning expectations for its second quarter.
Kingsmill owner and Hovis toast takeover deal
The owner of Kingsmill has agreed to buy its rival bakery business Hovis, in a deal that could make the biggest bread brand in the country if it gets the green light from regulators.
Associated British Foods, a FTSE 100 company which also owns the retailer Primark, has agreed to buy Hovis from the private equity firm Endless.
The deal between the second and third biggest bread brands in the country is expected to draw attention from the Competition and Markets Authority.
Both companies have struggled recently against Warburtons, the biggest brand in the sector. Revenue at Hovis dropped almost 9% to £447m in the year to 28 September 2024, with pre-tax losses widening to £4.7m, compared with a loss of £3.6m the year prior. That included £530,000 in one-off costs, largely related to restructuring.
ABF’s bakery division, Allied Bakeries (which includes Kingsmill, Allinson’s and Sunblest) made an annual loss about £30m despite sales of about £400m last year, according to analysts at the broker Panmure Liberum.
ABF said the deal will combine the production and distribution activities of Allied Bakeries and Hovis, which would create cost savings and efficiencies, so it would turn into a “profitable UK bread business that is sustainable over the long term”.
George Weston, ABF’s chief executive, said:
This transaction will create a UK bakeries business that is both profitable and sustainable over the long term. Supporting the Hovis and Kingsmill brands with well-invested and efficient operations will also enable innovation and growth. This solution will create value for shareholders, provide greater choice for consumers and increase efficiencies for customers.
Introduction: Chinese economy slows as Trump tariffs bite
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
New data suggest the Chinese economy slowed in July, as Donald Trump’s trade war began to bite at the second biggest economy in the world.
Figures coming out of Beijing last night showed that Chinese industrial production rose at the slowest rate since November and expanded by 5.7% compared with the same point last year, worse than an expected 6%.
Meanwhile Chinese retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, its slowest pace so far this year and down from 4.8% the previous month.
Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at The Conference Board’s China Center, said:
Firms may be running on existing capacity rather than building new plants…The July industrial value-add breakdown tells a more nuanced story than the weak fixed asset investment headline.
He pointed to China’s automobile manufacturing, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transport equipment industries as “outliers (that) indicate policy-driven, high-tech and strategic sectors are still attracting substantial capital.”
The Chinese CSI 300 stock index rose 0.8% after the release of the economic data, as it fed speculation that Beijing could introduce fresh stimulus in the market.
Meanwhile in the UK, the FTSE 100 blue chip share index is set to end the week at a new record high. It is poised to rise by 0.5% when the market opens at 8:00AM, led by gains in the finance and defence sectors.
The defence sector has been one of the best performers in London’s stock market, thanks to a wave of rearmament across much of Europe in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
All eyes will be on Alaska later today, when Vladimir Putin is set to meet Donald Trump. The US president has said he believes the Russian leader is ready to make a deal on the Ukraine war.
