Extremely heavy rain alert issued for parts of South Peninsula, Central India

European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts suggest drying up of most parts of India except West Coast and parts of East India and Himalayan foothills until July 30 while though a fresh low-pressure area may spin over the Bay towards the end.
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Numerical model predictions continue to predict formation of a fresh strong low-pressure area spinning up over the Bay of Bengal in another week’s time (around July 25) even as Wednesday’s well-marked ‘low’ intensified back into a depression over south-east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining north-east Madhya Pradesh, compounding flooded conditions in many areas.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) as well as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have converged on the prospects of the fresh ‘low’ with an initial track towards East and Central India. This is expected to bring even more rain into the region durning the last few days of July, although large parts of the rest of the country may be in for some relief.

Depression lords it over

The monsoon continued to be in a robust state on Thursday as the depression lorded it over south-east Uttar Pradesh, 50 km west-southwest of Prayagraj; 80 km north-north-east of Satna; 100 km east-south-east of Banda; and 140 km east of Khajuraho. It may cross south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining north Madhya Pradesh during next two days, ensuring even more rain over the reigon.

The depression made merry in a background set up by monsoon trough that passed through Bikaner, Datia; the centre of the depression over south-east Uttar Pradesh, Dehri, Purulia and Digha, before bending east-south-east to dip into the north-east Bay of Bengal. The dip in the water is always fraught with the prospect of scooping up the next low-pressure system.

Western disturbance in

Thursday also marked arrival of a western disturbance as a trough into this already mature setting as it locked itself into position next to south-west Rajasthan. This raises the prospect of continued interaction of the disturbance with the monsoon easterlies fanned up by the depression over south-east Uttar Pradesh, resulting in sustained rain over parts of North-West India.

This apart, over the Soutn Peninsula, an unusual east-west trough ran across Tamil Nadu and Kerala roughly along Karaikudi, Madurai, Bodinayakkanur and Kochi with an upper air cyclonic circulation over north interior Karnataka. This is apparently responsible for the enhanced rainfall over the region, with Kerala and Coastal Karnataka being a major beneficiary.

Extreme heavy rain

The IMD has sounded extremely heavy rainfall (+21 cm) at isolated places over Kerala on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday; coastal Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh on Thursday; south interior Karnataka on Thursday and Friday; and Rajasthan on Friday. Very heavy rain is likely over Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh in between.

Separately, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast over Kerala and Mahe, Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka for next seven days and for five days over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam until Monday next; isolated heavy rainfall over Lakshadweep on Saturday and Sunday; for three days over Rayalaseema until Saturday; and two days over Telangana until Friday.

Rain deficits persist

Rainfall over West Coast is likely to continue for rest of July, while the rest of the South Peninsula dries up relatively after the ongoing spell drives much-needed rain into deficit areas of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam as well as Lakshadweep, although not that heavy into Rayalaseema or Telangana. East and North-East India (-21 per cent) and South Peninsula (-11 per cent) saw deficits deepen while the country as a whole had run up +9 per cent above normal as of Wednesday.

Published on July 17, 2025