Donald Trump’s Pakistan Oil Gamble Ignores Strategic And Security Risks | World News

US President Donald Trump’s decision to collaborate with Pakistan on oil exploration and mining has been described as an “unforced error” that could result in significant financial losses, according to a recent analysis. The critique points to a history of failed attempts to locate viable oil reserves in the region, suggesting that Washington may once again be investing in a losing proposition.

In an article published by Inkstick, analyst Marcus Andreopoulos argues that Trump’s decision continues a pattern of short-term strategic repositioning in South Asia, while overlooking deeper, long-standing challenges.

“By agreeing to assist in oil extraction, Trump is continuing his expedient repositioning in the region. Still, in doing so, the US President is also overlooking the inevitable strategic pitfalls that lie ahead of this move,” writes Andreopoulos.

While Balochistan remains a key source of natural gas in Pakistan, repeated claims of oil discoveries in the province have consistently proven baseless. Various Pakistani administrations have cited speculative estimates suggesting billions of barrels of untapped oil lie beneath the country and its adjacent waters, claims that have not been validated through successful drilling.

The article further highlights the deteriorating security landscape in Pakistan as a major red flag for deeper US involvement.

“The sharp uptick in violence targeting Chinese workers and infrastructure projects in Pakistan over the last three years should serve as a further warning against greater US involvement in the country,” it warns.

Despite these concerns, Islamabad is likely to welcome any sign of American investment, even if there is little confidence that it will yield tangible results for Washington. For Pakistan, such cooperation represents both a potential economic lifeline and an opportunity to strengthen diplomatic ties with the US.

However, energy analysts remain sceptical. Trump’s optimism about Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves” is described as puzzling, given the relatively modest estimates of the country’s actual crude oil holdings. As per various studies, Pakistan’s proven oil reserves range between 234 and 353 million barrels, ranking it around 50th in the world. The country is heavily reliant on imports to meet its domestic energy requirements and even imports oil from the United States.

Even in the unlikely event of a successful find, particularly in volatile regions like Balochistan, the consequences could be politically destabilising. The province, long plagued by ethnic and political unrest, has seen tensions rise further due to perceptions of foreign exploitation. China’s involvement through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already provoked local resentment. An American footprint in resource extraction could aggravate this unrest and entangle the US in domestic strife.

Strategically, Balochistan holds appeal for the United States, especially as a vantage point for monitoring Iran. However, the article notes that such geopolitical ambitions carry considerable risk, especially in a region where anti-Western sentiment remains entrenched.

Data from Worldometer shows that, as of 2016, Pakistan had 353.5 million barrels of proven reserves, just 0.021% of the world’s total. Based on a daily consumption rate of 556,000 barrels, these reserves would last under two years if the country ceased imports.

Current oil production in Pakistan stands at just 70,000 to 80,000 barrels per day, meeting only 15-20% of domestic demand. The remainder is covered through costly imports.

An official from Indian Oil Corporation pointed out that domestic fuel prices in Pakistan are among the highest globally, with petrol priced at Rs 272.15 per litre and high-speed diesel at Rs 284.35 per litre, more than twice the cost in neighbouring India.

The same official added that Pakistan’s refining infrastructure is both limited and outdated, while oil exploration efforts face a low success rate and are hampered by political instability, security threats, and financial constraints, all of which further deter foreign investment.

(With inputs from IANS)